On December 14, the Yemeni Houthi group claimed responsibility for an attack on a Danish ship in the Red Sea using a drone, according to a statement issued by it. Twenty-six days before this incident, specifically on November 19, Yahya Saree, the Houthi spokesman, announced that his group would target ships flying the Israeli flag, and ships owned or operated by Israeli companies, regardless of whether the ships were carrying military targets or not.

With the increase in the number of Houthi attacks, and their launching of missiles and drones against commercial targets in the Red Sea; justifying their actions as being in order to pressure both the occupying state and the United States, under the pretext of responding to Israeli violations against the people of Gaza, the question remains: What are the limits of the Houthi threat to navigation in the Red Sea, and the impact of their attacks and targeting of ships on the volume of trade in this sea?

It is worth noting that the Red Sea has geopolitical importance for countries in general and Arab countries in particular, as the Red Sea region constitutes a strategic location that enjoys With international attention and monitoring, as it is a major commercial point linking the East to the West, where more than 25 thousand ships pass through it annually. However, with the growth of trade operations in the Red Sea, the piracy crisis has worsened, which has become one of the most serious threats to the world's countries since the Somali pirate crisis, and this importance has increased in conjunction with the escalation associated with the war on Gaza.

The Red Sea region has become a theater and arena for conflict between the active international powers, until regional and international changes have become a factor in exacerbating the conflict, through the ongoing piracy operations by the Houthis, which threatens the security of global trade. Piracy, as defined by the International Maritime Organization of the United Nations and the International Maritime Bureau, is "any act of violence or unlawful detention, or any act of robbery, committed for private purposes by the crew or passengers of a private ship or private aircraft, and directed on the high seas against another ship or aircraft, or any act of voluntary participation in the operation of a pirate ship or aircraft, or any act of incitement or deliberate facilitation of a described act."

Advanced Piracy:
Piracy has developed and become very active on the Red Sea coast as a result of the poor economic conditions and the complex situation in the Horn of Africa region. Piracy was an individual act until it developed into a collective one through the intervention of different countries and groups, in order to disrupt the movement of ships and maritime trade in the Red Sea region.

(*) A new pattern: Despite the presence of American and French bases in the Horn of Africa region, and despite the Security Council resolutions aimed at preventing piracy operations in the Red Sea, all efforts have not been successful in limiting these Houthi operations. Instead of piracy being limited to small boats and ships in its operations, operations are now carried out through the use of giant ships and boats, as pirates have come to rely on speedboats, machine guns, hand grenades, and satellite phones; in order to disrupt the movement of ships in the Red Sea, and cut off trade routes, especially ships heading towards Israel, as attempts to respond to Israeli violations in the Gaza Strip.

(*) Escalation of attacks: Since the beginning of the war on Gaza, the Houthis have threatened two companies that own two LNG tankers, the Sanmar Regent and the Epic Bolivar, to prevent the ships from shipping. The Houthis also launched the first batch of missiles and unmanned suicide drones towards Israel, where some of the projectiles were intercepted by the US Navy, with a missile falling in the coastal area of ​​Midi in the Yemeni Hajjah Governorate.

With the escalation of the Israeli aggression on Gaza, the Houthis launched intensive attacks on the northern Gulf of Aqaba by hijacking some Israeli commercial ships, such as the ship specialized in transporting cars, the Galaxy Leader, which flies the flag of the Bahamas. Several sources indicated that the ship is owned by the Ray Car Carrier company owned by the Israeli businessman Abraham Ungar, and has been under hijacking since November 19.

Off the Yemeni coast in the Red Sea, the US and French navies intercepted Houthi projectiles, and the Houthis officially announced that they would target any Israeli ship passing through the Red Sea, due to the aggression against the Strip.

Houthi attacks on naval vessels using missiles and unmanned aircraft have also increased, under the pretext that these ships are linked to Israel, and only two injuries were recorded out of more than 20 naval attacks on ships designated for shipping to Israel, represented by three naval ships: "Unity Explorer", which was subjected to three attacks with two injuries, the ship "Number Nine", and the ship "Sophie-2".

This was followed by a Houthi drone attack on a ship in the Red Sea that was heading to Israel, and a Liberian-flagged container ship that was damaged by an “air strike” 50 miles north of the Yemeni port of Mokha. The ship was sailing south through the Bab al-Mandab Strait when it was hit by a projectile, causing one of the containers to fall into the sea and a fire to break out on the deck. Ships arriving at the port of Eilat have almost completely stopped due to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.

The Houthis have impersonated Yemeni authorities in order to issue orders to all ships transiting the Red Sea, issuing instructions to divert ships to other destinations, which harms trade.

Various justifications:
The Houthis and a number of armed groups in the region are working to launch attacks with the aim of pressuring both the Israeli occupation and the United States of America, especially after the outbreak of the war on the Gaza Strip, where the American support for Israel has continued for more than two months now, but in reality these attacks did not only constitute pressure on both Israel and America, but also represent pressure and harm maritime trade and the global economy.

The Houthis followed up the naval attacks in the Red Sea against Israel following the war in Gaza, with a number of attacks launched against ships heading to Israel, but the Houthis confirmed - in an official statement - that they are targeting ships linked to Israeli entities, and the scope of their operations was recently expanded in conjunction with the war in Gaza by announcing the prevention of the passage of all ships heading to Israeli ports, unless food and medicine are brought into the besieged Gaza Strip, considering this a response to the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip, and in support of the Palestinian factions.

As for the American reaction, American officials were quoted as saying that the administration of President Joe Biden sent messages to the Houthis through several channels warning them against continuing to launch attacks on ships in the Red Sea and against Israel, but the American administration did not neglect to identify the weapons used by the Houthis and study how they are used. The Americans concluded that the weapons used by the Houthis are locally manufactured using foreign components that were smuggled into Yemen in parts, but medium-range ballistic missiles are being used against Israel, and this is something the Houthis had not followed before. American officials are concerned about the ongoing Houthi attacks in the Red Sea due to the economic damage caused by the delay in the movement of ships. There are daily fluctuations in the number of active vessels, but there is no indication that this is in response to Houthi attacks. In the two weeks before the Houthis turned the Red Sea into a flashpoint in the current escalation, an average of 381 vessels transited or sailed through the Red Sea each day, including vessels of more than 10,000 tons and those engaged in international trade that are not at anchor or docked. The daily average number of active vessels was 390 between November 15 and 28, more than in the same period in 2022.

Threat Limits:
The idea that the Houthis are able to disrupt commercial traffic through the Red Sea seems exaggerated, as the Houthis do not officially possess naval vessels that would enable them to control trade routes in the Red Sea, and their policies in the Red Sea are represented by launching attacks via helicopters. The presence of American and French warships and other ships also makes it difficult for the Houthis to cut off maritime trade routes, especially since these ships are constantly patrolling, which confirms that the passage will not be subject to Houthi control.

However, the fact that these Houthi attacks pose a great danger and threat to ships cannot be ignored, even if the part controlled by the Houthis is within a very limited scope, and is unable to extend control and influence over the entire Red Sea region.

It is expected that Houthi airstrikes will disrupt traffic through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, through which approximately 10% of global trade passes, as the Houthis target Israeli ships but may misidentify them.

Some Israeli ships have also taken a longer route around Africa and the Cape of Good Hope, extending the journey from 19 to 31 days depending on the speed of the ship, increasing costs and increasing delays. The global oil market has ignored the recent attacks, causing prices to fall, and the market has become more concerned about weak demand in major economies. Insurance costs for shipping companies moving through the Red Sea have also increased.

The Israeli Broadcasting Authority announced that Israel has officially approached several countries, including Britain and Japan, with the aim of forming a dedicated operational force to operate in the Red Sea in order to ensure freedom of navigation in it. This special force, which Israel seeks to form, will operate within the framework of a multinational coalition in the Bab al-Mandab Strait area.

Finally, for the European Union, it is necessary to ensure that its countries participate in the security of the Red Sea and coordinate closely with each other in exchanging information; It is essential that the EU engages in diplomatic, military, police and trade efforts in its Red Sea position. Increasingly cooperative policy options could also prevent the militarization of the maritime domain and potential conflict in the region from escalating. This could be done by hosting a Red Sea summit by the EU, involving stakeholders in the Red Sea region, and then coming up with a strategy to secure the waterways and limit ongoing Houthi attacks.

Cairo News